Zoning The APC Ticket To Osun West Is Political Suicide, Not Strategy,By Adekunle Ademola

As a registered voter in Osun State and a deeply invested stakeholder in the progressive coalition that defines the All Progressives Congress (APC) family, I have keenly followed recent deliberations and engagements over the proposition to zone the 2026 gubernatorial ticket of our party to the Osun West senatorial district.

With the utmost respect for all shades of opinion, I must express my unequivocal and resolute disagreement with this proposal, which I find not only ill timed, ill-advised but also politically counterproductive.

First, proponents and agitators of this zoning argument have anchored their narrative on the alleged electoral performance of the APC in Osun West in recent elections, notably the 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial contests.

They posited that Osun West has served as a comforting stronghold and stabilizing region for the party. This is a fallacy. However, this assertion collapses under the weight of empirical evidence and statistical realities of INEC results.

The claim is a glaring fallacy, which is a misguided interpretation of electoral dynamics and voting patterns in the ten local government areas of our senatorial district.

Carefully, let us dissect the available data. In the September 22, 2018 gubernatorial election, the APC secured 80,020 votes in Osun West, while the PDP polled a significant 101,788 votes. (21,768 deficit votes).

Fast forward to July 16, 2022, again, with the same candidates, the APC with Gboyega Oyetola garnered 116,870 votes against the PDP’s 144,558 votes of Ademola Adeleke in the same senatorial district. (27,698 marginal difference).

Across both electoral cycles, Osun West delivered a cumulative vote deficit of 49,466 to the APC. This is not a zone that has functioned as a bastion of strength but rather one that has consistently underperformed and delivered distressing margins of defeat. Truth is constant, and facts are sacred.

On both occasions, Ademola Adeleke stood in as a candidate, but today, he is the Executive Governor of Osun state. More importantly, Osun West is the home base of the governor.

Beyond the gubernatorial seat, the PDP led administration in Osun state currently boasts a firm grip on the zone with nine state assembly members, three federal house of representatives member, and a high-ranking Senator from the same senatorial axis.

What then is the political calculus that suggests Osun West APC is now capable of reversing this entrenched dominance? What tectonic shift has occurred to justify ceding the gubernatorial ticket to a zone that has been electorally vulnerable and continuously outnumbered? Where is the magical wand of APC members in Osun West?

From a strategic standpoint, it is political common sense that if the APC is to dislodge a sitting governor in Osun with such a consolidated home advantage, the battleground must be moved outside of his comfort zone.

Victory can only be achieved by rallying behind a candidate from a more populous, electorally potent, power deprived, and politically conscious, and ready-to-go persuasive region, a zone with both historical relevance and numerical strength in the state’s voting architecture.

It is imperative to emphasize that political contests, especially at the gubernatorial level, are won through numbers, meticulous strategy, intelligent candidate profiling, regional balance, and data driven mobilization and not through sentimental zoning arrangements as elections will be held across all the polling units in all the three senatorial districts.

The obsession with zoning, in a culturally and ethnically homogeneous state like Osun, is inimical to the broader interest of party cohesion and electoral success. Zoning, by its very nature, is divisive.

It creates artificial dichotomies, promotes mediocrity over merit, and truncates the party’s ability to field its most viable candidate. The agitations about Osun West should die a natural death afterwards.

The APC in Osun must resist the temptation to engage in self-sabotage,self-induced, and self-inflicted calamities. The 2026 gubernatorial election will not be a tea party.

It will be a battle of wits, grassroots reach, institutional strength, and strategic brilliance. The APC cannot afford to walk into such a contest with one hand tied behind its back by virtue of illogical zoning.

Rather than engage in parochial politicking, party leaders and critical stakeholders, both at the state and national levels must redirect the conversation toward identifying a candidate with the right mix of competence, crossregional appeal, proven administrative experience, and the numerical base to outmatch the PDP in all three senatorial zones. We must capitalize on Adeleke’s policy mistakes, weaknesses, underperformance, limitations, and visible gaps in governance to reawaken our base and mobilize swing voters in deprived communities and revolting towns.

If the APC in Osun State concedes to zoning over strategic pragmatism, it would be tantamount to voluntarily surrendering the trophy before the contest even begins at all. This will not merely be a tactical and political error; it is a political suicide mission of another eight years.

In conclusion, the APC must choose the path of electoral wisdom over sectional appeasement. The ticket must not be zoned. It must be earned through a rigorous, merit-based process that prioritizes victory, party unity, and the overall interest of the people of Osun State.

Let reasoning prevail across boards. Zoning the gubernatorial ticket to Osun West will be a strategic miscalculation for the Osun APC. A word of caution to say no to sentiment so that Osun APC must choose victory over zoning in 2026. The APC can not afford the Osun West gamble. It is too dangerous a risk. If APC zones the gubernatorial ticket, it will be a valuable gift to Governor Ademola Adeleke. Merit consideration over map or zonal preference is APC’s only path to winning Osun state in 2026, quote me.

Adekunle Ademola writes from Idoo, Ward 07, Egbedore Local Government.